2012-09-19
Terrorism Database GIS Project
- Final Report -
- Final Report -
by René Brauer
Project
start: 09/2011
Project end: 09/2012
Work hours: 96 h
Project end: 09/2012
Work hours: 96 h
Note: The
project was initially thought only to last 3 months; however halfway through
the project Fridlund and Brauer started an individual separate course in
Science and Technology Studies together. In order to avoid conflict of
interested it was decided to postpone the project. The remaining time of the
project was utilized sporadically in the year 2012.
Objectives:
· Exploring
GIS analytical possibilities for historical study of terrorism.
·
Exploring
Similar GIS approaches to other historical subjects.
·
Exploring
the possibilities of interactive GIS
The basic
idea behind the project is the realization that every action is happening at a
defined point in time and place and that no action occurs without context. An
example of context to the spatiality of terrorist attacks is given by Fridlund
(2012)[1]
when he writes: “…when Russian idealists
discovered the potential for a new form of revolutionary propaganda afforded by
small and powerful revolvers.” (Fridlund 2012: 7). This action of
‘discovering’ implies a temporal dimension; dividing a timeline into before the
discovery and after. Furthermore it also implies that the ‘discovery’ was transferred
to fellow revolutionists, implying a spatial process. These pattern underlying
terrorist attacks are difficult to map, since they are so far not well
documented, because they are often regarded as criminal activity. By mapping
the actual terrorist attacks themselves the project aimed at creating a proxy
variable, for the spread of terrorism techniques. In order to analyze the
temporal inception and tempo-spatial diffusion of techniques used for
assassination by terrorist groups. Utilizing geographical analysis with
Geographical Information System (GIS), which are computer aided mapping and
analyzing tools.
Spatial Analysis of 19th century Terrorism
Any
geographical analysis requires data to analyze; in this case no such
geographical data existed in ready analyzable format. Therefore a large part of
the project was spent on putting together a database; compiling data into a
standardized usable format from different data sources. These data sources
varied greatly in their format, ranging from already existing databases, to mentioning’s
in books, on internet sites, newspaper clippings etc., varying greatly in
amount of data quality.
A great
difficulty for the project was the definition of its categories, for example
the outcome of a terrorist attack was divided into three different
possibilities: fulfilled, failed or foiled. Nevertheless even these three simple
categories proved difficult to determine in cases, because if the aim of the
terrorist attack was to frighten the target and not kill, than the attack was a
success even if the target wasn’t killed. However this presupposes knowledge
about the aim of the terrorist’s, this knowledge was in most cases not
available. Furthermore if the terrorist attack was foiled, what location should
be given, the location of the apprehension or if available the location for the
planned attack. These are just a few examples of the difficulties involved in
classifying the terrorist attacks, nevertheless most of these were solved by
some means or another leading to creation of database including 104 separate
terrorist attacks evenly spaced throughout the 19th century. The categories
and the subsequent information that the database provided consisted of the
following categories:
·
Date -
date of the terrorist attack
·
Location - location of the terrorist attack
·
Perpetrator - individual who conducted the attack
·
Title of the Target - if available, royal title or
political office
·
Target - name of the victim
·
Method - specification over what kind of method
·
Outcome - success, failure or apprehension of the attack
Based on the
established database general trends were recognized. However the generality of
these trends is highly questionable due to the quality of the data. For example sometimes the only mentioning of
method in an information source was: “shot” revealing no information by what
method other than some type of firearm. Therefore many entries had to be
omitted, leading to only 32 data entries usable for a method analyses (out of a
total of 106). Figure 1 shows one type of analyzes that was created from the
data material, namely the cumulative occurrence of terrorist attacks utilizing
revolvers or other types of weapons.
Figure 1
crosses (x) represent ‘other types of methods’
while plus signs (+) represent ‘revolvers’
As seen in Figure
1 the usage of revolvers drastically increased around 1880 completely
dominating all other methods. However regarding the small sample size of 32
cases it is difficult to assess if this is a general trend or only valid for
this particular dataset of 32 of 106 (for this study) known and an unknown
total of all terrorist attack in the 19th century.
Therefore the
conclusion of the project is that it is intrinsically possible to do this type
of analyze possible yielding new insights into the study of historical
terrorism. However the limited timeframe for the project did not allow for the
creation of a larger sample size that is necessary to generalize any sort of
result.
Possibilities to extend data quality
One idea that
was tested in the scope of the project to get around the problem of too few
data points was to ‘crowd source’ the problem. I.E. creating a public
accessible platform where users would be enrolled in contributing in compiling
information for the researcher effectively outsourcing the largest part of the
research project, data gathering. As a pilot test a trial was conducted data
mining the London Times online newspaper archive. The time span for the search
defined itself to the 19th century (1800 – 1900), a search for the
keyword ‘murder’ revealed 56 257 articles mentioning ‘murder’ in some form
or another. Overwhelmed with this plethora of data a pilot-test was conducted
randomly selecting 20 articles and trying to compile their data. The 20 selected articles were used to create
the same data points as mentioned above; date, location etc. The result of this
trial was that the London Times as a single data source was not enough to
provide all the necessary information to compile the needed data. Further
research showed that the data was often available from other sources,
libraries, articles websites etc. However this drastically increased the
difficulty in the compilation process making it far too complicated for a
simple user interface. Furthermore the data itself faced the same problems of
ambiguity as the terrorist data explained above, creating possible difficulties
in the description. Therefore the collection method might be suitable for a PhD
research project, but not for a crowd sourcing project as it presents far too
many complexities to one particular user.
Similar projects, software’s and conclusion of the project
Several GIS
approaches have made their way into historical studies, creating se so called
subfield of Historical GIS (HGIS). Examples of this kind of study are inquiries
about the Salem Witch Trials[2],
Battle of Gettysburg[3]
and the steel industry of Pennsylvania[4].
Salem Witch
Trials: Reexamination
of the trials by mapping the occurrences and the households brought into
questions the previously assumed hypothesis about an east west separation.
Furthermore analysis on regional scale showed the viral like spread of trials throughout
the surrounding areas
Battle of
Gettysburg: The creation of a viewshed (possible points of view) from
General Lee´s position revealed that he was unable to physically see the battle
firsthand. Therefore he had to rely on second hand information possibly
influencing the outcome negatively for the confederate troops.
Pennsylvania
iron smelting: Previous assumptions about the rationality
for adopting continental smelting methods due to their superiority of production
were called into question. Based on comparisons of actual production data
between charcoal and fossil coal, and based on analysis of the locations of the
mills and the furnaces.
The main
software used behind most of HGIS project represents ArcGis[5],
as it is one of the largest GIS software providers. However open source
alternatives exist such as TimeMap[6]
and QuantumGIS[7]
(QGIS). Both are desktop type GIS software’s and very suitable for light type
of spatial analysis required for the purpose described here. Quantum GIS may
represent the more attractive software option. Firstly it had the possibilities
for GRASS[8]
plug-ins, opening the possibility for advanced GIS analysis if need. Secondly
QGIS has a large community, ensuring continuously updating and problem solving
of possible software bugs. Finally QGIS is an Open Source engine also employing
Open Source data formats that are compatible with most online services for
further online usage of the data.
The
possibility to display the collected data in open source format available for
the public was deemed highly possible from the information gathered. Projects like
Pelagios[9]
specialize in sharing historical humanities research data and making it
available, all using Open License data formats. Google Earth[10]
allows for similar possibilities and has the advantage of being widely known,
however Goggle uses its own data format possibly creating compatibility and
licensing issues. Therefore the choice of which online platform to use to make
the data available is highly depended on what intentions the creator has with
the data. If the only goal is to visualize the data and make this visualization
available Goggle Earth is the perfect platform, however if also the core data
should be able available for further analysis by third parties Goggle might not
be the perfect option.
The overarching lesson learned from this project:
This type of
GIS analysis and distribution is potentially possible, however due to the
novelty of this approach large amount of time has to be spend on data
collection, analysis and preparing the data before any kind of general results or
possible publication can be achieved.
[1] Fridlund, Mats (2012) Affording
terrorism: Idealists and materialities in the emergence of modern terrorism, in
Terrorism and affordance. ed. Max Taylor
& P.M. Currie, London,
Continuum
[3]
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/07/27/arts/spatial-maps.html
[4] Knowles, A.K and
Healy, R. G. (2006). Geography, Timing, and Technology: A GIS-Based Analysis of
Pennsylvania's Iron Industry, 1825-1875, Journal
of Economic History Vol. 66. Is. p. 608
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